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BMS Tropical Update Sept 13th 10:00 am CDT

By: - September 13th, 2019

No Rest for the Weary The Atlantic hurricane season is far from over.  In fact, we are just a few days removed from the peak of the season.  As mentioned in the September 6th BMS Insight, I anticipated the insurance industry would have a solid seven days of rest, but […]

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BMS Tropical Update Sept 6th 12 pm CDT

By: - September 6th, 2019

To think, two weeks ago today the NHC first circled a tropical wave 1,400 miles east of the Windward Islands. This tropical wave would become Dorian and result in one of the strongest storms ever recorded globally.  The impact on the Carolinas has largely been limited to coastal areas, and […]

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BMS Tropical Update Sept 5th 11 am CDT

By: - September 5th, 2019

After nine days and well over 10,000 words written in these BMS Tropical Updates, it appears that the end is in sight, but not before the biggest impacts from Dorian are felt by the insurance industry.  Interestingly, though, it seems that interest on social media and other mainstream media regarding […]

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BMS Tropical Update Sept 4th 10 am CDT

By: - September 4th, 2019

Florida Impacts For the last several days, I have been suggesting Matthew in 2016 would be one of the better analog events to help understand Dorian’s potential impacts.  Now 90 miles east northeast of Dayton Beach, Florida with winds of 105 mph, Dorian is on par with the strength of […]

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BMS Tropical Update Sept 3rd 10 am CDT

By: - September 3rd, 2019

Forever changed After pummeling the Bahamas for the last 48 hours, the images now surfacing verify that the northern islands have been devastated and may take years to recover. Hopefully, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) will help with rapid infusion of cash to assist with immediate post-disaster priorities, […]

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BMS Tropical Update Sept 2nd 10 am CDT

By: - September 2nd, 2019

Miles Still Matter As you read this insight this morning, think about the following fact:  a Category 5 Hurricane Dorian, with winds of 165 mph, is stalled just 120 miles east of a population of around 4.6 million people.  If you have ever had doubt that a storm capable of […]

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BMS Tropical Update Sept 1st 10 am CDT

By: - September 1st, 2019

Miles Will Matter Hurricane Dorian is a marvel of nature.  Below is a one-minute satellite image of Dorian as the sun rose this morning.  Dorian has maintained a circular and symmetrical eyewall throughout the day and night, and reconnaissance aircraft data has continuously supported a high-end Category 4 storm with […]

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BMS Tropical Update August 31st 9 am CDT

By: - August 31st, 2019

As expected, Dorian is currently a healthy Category 4 hurricane about 445 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  I would expect Dorain to track toward the northern Bahamas today and it would not surprise me if for a brief period it reaches the status of a Category 5 hurricane.  […]

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BMS Tropical Update August 30th – 9 am CDT

By: - August 30th, 2019

There has been no significant change since yesterday to the overall favorable environment for further intensification between now and Sunday. Moisture availability will steadily increase, shear will remain in the range that may help ventilate a hurricane, and ocean heat content is robust along the full track and highest in […]

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BMS Tropical Update 8/29/2019 – 9 AM CDT

By: - August 29th, 2019

Forecast Uncertainty and Verification Let’s for a minute take a step back and think about when Dorian first became a tropical storm 725 miles southeast of Barbados.  At that time the long-range five-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggested Dorian would track over the Dominican Republic.  As the […]

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