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BMS Tropical Update 9/18/2017 12 PM CDT

By: - September 18th, 2017

Although there are no current threats to the U.S. mainland, I would like to provide a brief update on the thoughts that were discussed in Friday’s Tropical Update. Below are a few key points about each tropical system: Tropical Depression (TD) Lee: TD Lee is currently 1060 miles west of […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/15/2017 12 PM CDT

By: - September 15th, 2017

More Tropical Troubles First and foremost, I had previously mentioned several times I thought the Atlantic Basin would shut down for a few weeks due to the suppression phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Unfortunately, the MJO is currently in a weakened state and the large-scale subsidence is not strong […]

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Hurricane Irma – BMS webinars discussing developments

By: - September 14th, 2017

Tropical Update Webinar one – 7 September 2017 Due to the special forecast situation and potential impact on the insurance industry, BMS Catastrophe Analytics held a webinar on September 7th which provided the latest on Irma, its forecasted track and impacts for the insurance industry. Tropical Update Webinar two – […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/11/2017 4 PM CDT

By: - September 11th, 2017

Finally Over I have been focusing on Irma’s insurance impacts since August 28th and what a ride it has been as we finally start to close the book on this historic event. Thankfully, its U.S. story will not be as historic as some of the early forecasts were suggesting last […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/10/2017 11 AM CDT

By: - September 10th, 2017

Historic Day in Hurricane History Today will go down as a fairly historic day in hurricane history on many fronts. It is still too early to determine what the insured losses from Irma in the U.S. will be, but the indications from modeling companies suggest they could be historic. Irma […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/9/2017 12 PM CDT

By: - September 9th, 2017

Waiting for the Turn North Did you know that the Associated Press has reported that 5.6 million people have been asked to evacuate Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma? To my knowledge, this is now the largest evacuation in U.S. history. The previous record was 3.7 million people who evacuated ahead […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/8/2017 11 AM CDT

By: - September 8th, 2017

Margin of error very slim now As tough as this is for me to say, we are now in a window of model error (48 hours at about 50 miles) that suggests we are at the point where south Florida will likely see a catastrophic hurricane landfall. Based on some […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/7/2017 12 PM CDT

By: - September 7th, 2017

The Critical Turn North We are now in the critical 72-hour window before Irma’s expected interaction with south Florida.  The model runs overnight have been fairly consistent, but for a 72-hour forecast, there still seems to be a considerable amount of spread in the timing of the northward turn.  I […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/6/2017 1 PM CDT

By: - September 6th, 2017

One For The Record Books It appears that the global models have a common case of the flip-flops over the last 48 hours, which is typical with a complex forecast situation. We are also seeing some of the history books on hurricane intensity being rewritten. Based on information received from […]

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BMS Tropical Update 9/5/2017 12 PM

By: - September 5th, 2017

Irma Heading Into The History Books I mentioned in Friday’s BMS Tropical Update that Irma would become a major hurricane, possibly a Category 5, near the Leeward Islands. As of this morning, Irma can be found 180 miles east of Antigua and moving at 14 mph, officially a Category 5 […]

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