By: Andrew J Siffert - August 23rd, 2016
It’s time for U.S. insurers to take careful note of tropical wave 99L that I blogged about on Friday. This tropical wave is currently 400 miles to the east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. At its current translation speed of 15-20 mph, the wave will reach the eastern Caribbean tomorrow morning […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - August 19th, 2016
Tropical Storm Fiona A few weeks ago I mentioned the approaching peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10). Peak season means that tropical waves will move off the African coast, and attention will focus on the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean. Peak season also means that every […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - July 21st, 2016
It’s hard to believe, but the Atlantic hurricane season began 189 days ago when Hurricane Alex formed on January 13 and went on to become the strongest hurricane ever to form in the month of January in Atlantic Basin. The early season continued with three landfalling named storms that formed […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - May 31st, 2016
After two years of below normal named storm activity in the Atlantic basin most prognostication suggests that the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average. Many of these forecasts are citing a weakening El Niño and warmer than average seas surface temperatures over much of the Atlantic basin as […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - April 6th, 2016
A Q1 and El Niño wrap up With winter and Q1, 2016, behind us, the insurance industry can review the active weather pattern and resulting insured losses. As mentioned in my blog post last fall, Florida experienced lots of weather activity, which is typical during strong El Niño winters such […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - January 21st, 2016
If you have been living under a rock the last few days, you might not know that the first big nor’easter of the 2015/2016 winter season is expected to hit the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend. This storm summary will focus on the insured impacts of and provide […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - November 10th, 2015
The central and eastern Pacific experiences a lot of year-to-year variability in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Some years the water is much warmer (El Niño), and some years the water is much cooler (La Niña). The current phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is approaching its peak warmth with […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - October 2nd, 2015
All week the discussion around the track of hurricane Joaquin has been about the uncertainty. Today the end game for Joaquin is much more certain as Joaquin has now started its northward movement away from the Bahamas where Joaquin grew to an impressive category 4 hurricane. Joaquin is the first […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - October 1st, 2015
“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - September 30th, 2015
Hurricane Joaquin rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 1 hurricane tracking west toward the Bahamas. As I wrote about yesterday, the forecast uncertainty for Joaquin is extremely high. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has clearly communicated this uncertainty in their forecast discussions which I have quote below. “Confidence […]