By: Andrew J Siffert - June 21st, 2017
Just after the tropical update yesterday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) proceeded to upgrade Potential Tropical Cyclone Three to Tropical Storm Cindy. Currently Cindy is located 170 miles SSW of Morgan City, LA and may be the ugliest organized named storm that meteorologists have seen in the Gulf of Mexico […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - June 20th, 2017
Update: 12:39 PM CDT the NHC will be upgrading PTC3 to Cindy. The most recent ECMWF 12z landfalls TS Cindy into Houston. Has some strong winds with a landfall pressure of 990 mb which is a minor hurricane pressure. Yesterday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) found enough evidence […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - June 19th, 2017
As expected from last week, two areas of tropical trouble are trying to form in the Atlantic Basin. If both of these tropical systems manage to get named this week, it would be fairly rare as only three Atlantic hurricane seasons on record have had two concurrent named storms in […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - June 1st, 2017
Every year there are new tools and products that can help the insurance industry understand named storm risks. In this write-up, I highlight some of these new tools and products for the 2017 hurricane season, which starts today. For ideas on the type of activity that is expected this […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - May 15th, 2017
Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Skill Seasonal hurricane forecasts, with varying lead times, have been produced in the Atlantic basin since 1984 by the late Dr. Gray from Colorado State University (CSU). Partly as a result of the early success of those forecasts, seasonal named storm forecasts are now a dime a […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - May 5th, 2017
The Onslaught of Severe Weather Last week I posted some general ideas of what to expect over the next few months and briefly touched on U.S. severe weather. In this update I will provide a bit more detail on 2017 severe weather and what to expect over the next few […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - April 26th, 2017
Summary: An El Niño is forecasted to emerge for late this summer, but weather patterns suggest that it has already arrived. Late spring-early summer warming will occur over the central and eastern U.S.; then, temperatures will trend cooler into the summer for the northern plains. Heavy spring rains across the […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - April 21st, 2017
You might have noticed that the first named storm (Arlene) of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season has formed in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean – 815 miles west of the Azores Islands. The biggest impact from this storm will be the discussion in the meteorology community as […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - January 26th, 2017
Three weeks ago, James Kossin published a major study in the scientific journal Nature: “Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods” (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v541/n7637/full/nature20783.html). This paper has gotten a bit of press in various insurer publications as over the last decade near term hurricane risk has dramatically influenced […]
By: Andrew J Siffert - January 12th, 2017
As 2016 natural catastrophe headlines funnel in from various media outlets and insurance publications, a theme of negative highlights quickly emerges. Few headlines point out the positives that occurred. In this post, I want to highlight a few of the 2016 insurance industry positives that might otherwise be lost in […]