BMS Tropical Update 8/23/2016 12 PM CDT

By: - August 23rd, 2016

It’s time for U.S. insurers to take careful note of tropical wave 99L that I blogged about on Friday. This tropical wave is currently 400 miles to the east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. At its current translation speed of 15-20 mph, the wave will reach the eastern Caribbean tomorrow morning […]

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Tropical Trouble In The Long Range Forecast

By: - August 19th, 2016

Tropical Storm Fiona A few weeks ago I mentioned the approaching peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10). Peak season means that tropical waves will move off the African coast, and attention will focus on the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean. Peak season also means that every […]

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Peak of 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Is Approaching

By: - July 21st, 2016

It’s hard to believe, but the Atlantic hurricane season began 189 days ago when Hurricane Alex formed on January 13 and went on to become the strongest hurricane ever to form in the month of January in Atlantic Basin. The early season continued with three landfalling named storms that formed […]

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Already off to a head start – Hurricane season officially begins June 1

By: - May 31st, 2016

After two years of below normal named storm activity in the Atlantic basin most prognostication suggests that the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average. Many of these forecasts are citing a weakening El Niño and warmer than average seas surface temperatures over much of the Atlantic basin as […]

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Fading El Niño – What’s Next For Insurance Industry?

By: - April 6th, 2016

A Q1 and El Niño wrap up With winter and Q1, 2016, behind us, the insurance industry can review the active weather pattern and resulting insured losses. As mentioned in my blog post last fall, Florida experienced lots of weather activity, which is typical during strong El Niño winters such […]

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First East Coast winter storm of the season

By: - January 21st, 2016

If you have been living under a rock the last few days, you might not know that the first big nor’easter of the 2015/2016 winter season is expected to hit the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend. This storm summary will focus on the insured impacts of and provide […]

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El Niño saves Florida from hurricane winds, but other severe weather could be costly this winter

By: - November 10th, 2015

The central and eastern Pacific experiences a lot of year-to-year variability in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Some years the water is much warmer (El Niño), and some years the water is much cooler (La Niña). The current phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is approaching its peak warmth with […]

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BMS Tropical Update Joaquin 10/02/2015 12PM CDT

By: - October 2nd, 2015

All week the discussion around the track of hurricane Joaquin has been about the uncertainty. Today the end game for Joaquin is much more certain as Joaquin has now started its northward movement away from the Bahamas where Joaquin grew to an impressive category 4 hurricane. Joaquin is the first […]

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BMS Tropical Update Joaquin 10/01/2015 12PM CDT

By: - October 1st, 2015

  “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But […]

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BMS Tropical Update Joaquin 9/30/2015 12PM CDT

By: - September 30th, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 1 hurricane tracking west toward the Bahamas. As I wrote about yesterday, the forecast uncertainty for Joaquin is extremely high. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has clearly communicated this uncertainty in their forecast discussions which I have quote below. “Confidence […]

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