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BMS News

May Tropical Update

By: - May 15th, 2017

Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Skill Seasonal hurricane forecasts, with varying lead times, have been produced in the Atlantic basin since 1984 by the late Dr. Gray from Colorado State University (CSU).  Partly as a result of the early success of those forecasts, seasonal named storm forecasts are now a dime a […]

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May Severe Weather Update

By: - May 5th, 2017

The Onslaught of Severe Weather Last week I posted some general ideas of what to expect over the next few months and briefly touched on U.S. severe weather. In this update I will provide a bit more detail on 2017 severe weather and what to expect over the next few […]

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BMS Seasonal Outlook April 2017

By: - April 26th, 2017

Summary: An El Niño is forecasted to emerge for late this summer, but weather patterns suggest that it has already arrived. Late spring-early summer warming will occur over the central and eastern U.S.; then, temperatures will trend cooler into the summer for the northern plains. Heavy spring rains across the […]

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BMS Tropical Update 4/20/2016 4 PM CDT

By: - April 21st, 2017

You might have noticed that the first named storm (Arlene) of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season has formed in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean – 815 miles west of the Azores Islands.   The biggest impact from this storm will be the discussion in the meteorology community as […]

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Another New Hurricane Landfall Study

By: - January 26th, 2017

Three weeks ago, James Kossin published a major study in the scientific journal Nature: “Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods” ( This paper has gotten a bit of press in various insurer publications as over the last decade near term hurricane risk has dramatically influenced […]

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2016 – The Good News

By: - January 12th, 2017

As 2016 natural catastrophe headlines funnel in from various media outlets and insurance publications, a theme of negative highlights quickly emerges. Few headlines point out the positives that occurred. In this post, I want to highlight a few of the 2016 insurance industry positives that might otherwise be lost in […]

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Tis the season for severe weather across the south, but it’s been extremely quiet so far?

By: - November 28th, 2016

Tornado and hurricane drought? It’s no surprise that the recent lack of hurricane landfalls has drawn the attention of the insurance industry. The long-standing Florida hurricane drought ended with hurricane Hermine’s landfall on September 2, and of course, Matthew threatened to end the major U.S. hurricane drought as well. However, […]

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BMS Tropical Update 10/10/2016 12 PM CDT

By: - October 10th, 2016

Now that Matthew’s story is complete, immediate attention will turn to Nicole, a tropical storm currently 450 miles south of Bermuda. The models generally agree that Nicole will slowly strengthen back into a hurricane and that there is a good chance that Matthew will become a strong category 1 or […]

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BMS Tropical Update 10/9/2016 10 AM CDT

By: - October 9th, 2016

  Mathew End Game Matthew is now classified as a post tropical storm as the majority of its energy has merged with a mid-latitude frontal system.   As a result Matthew will once again defy the long range forecast models that had suggested Matthew’s energy would travel southward towards the Bahamas.  […]

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BMS Tropical Update 10/8/2016 10 AM CDT

By: - October 8th, 2016

Matthew Weakening Matthew has weakened from a category 3 hurricane yesterday afternoon down to a category 1 hurricane overnight.  Matthew has officially made landfall near Mcclellanville, SC as a category 1 hurricane.   Matthew has weakened due to a shallower continental shelf and lower ocean heat content. Also as Matthew […]

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