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Predictions for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Andy Siffert, BMS’ resident Meteorologist, discusses the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season:


Forecast groups predict a very active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

The start of the hurricane season is three weeks away and eight independent forecast outlets unanimously agree it will be a busy Atlantic hurricane season with a few calling for a higher probability of a landfalling hurricane along the coastal USA.

It is reasonable to wonder whether these early hurricane forecasts are accurate. Last year, forecasters in April called for an average to quieter than normal season, and it turned out to be a busy year with 19 named storms, tied for the third most on record. Seasonal forecasters emphasize the difficulties in predicting hurricane activity in April and, in fact, it is most likely impossible, given current methods and technology, to precisely predict the named storm activity level in April. However, many forecasting groups say they have made progress in developing these predictions and there is improvement based on using climatology alone. We do know that skill does climb slowly as the hurricane season approaches, with moderate to good skill levels being achieved in early August.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30 and in the linked, BMS Introspect – Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – April, we highlight the skill needed for an April hurricane forecast and what these forecasts are saying for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

Julie Serakos, Head of Cat Analytics, Radio Broadcast

Head of Cat Analytics, Julie Serakos was featured in a Minnesota Public News Climate Cast broadcast focusing on the economic impact of climate change.

2012 was an expensive year for insurers. Global economic losses from natural and man-made disasters totaling $186 billion. Extreme weather events in the United States were the most expensive — Hurricane Sandy alone caused $70 billion worth of damage.

Julie was interviewed for the Climate Cast broadcast by Kerri Miller and MPR News’ Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner, they utilised much of that interview in their discussion, while Julie’s recorded expert commentary featured in the first portion of the radio programme.

Click here to access the edited transcript of their conversation and to listen to the full broadcast.

Click here to learn more about our Analytical Services Offering.

 

 

Mike Larson – Expert Column in Physician Insurer

BMS Group’ EVP of Analytical Services, Mike Larson details the latest trends in the medical professional liability sector, and offers some savvy commentary on what he’s observed.

Click here to read the full article.

Reprinted from the first Quarter 2013 issue of Physician Insurer Magazine, Physician Insurers Association of America. Copyright, 2013

Why was Sandy so unique?

Andrew J Siffert, Assistant Vice President & Meteorologist with the BMS Analytical Services Team discusses the implications of Hurricane Sandy.

Superstorm Sandy made landfall October 29th just south of Atlantic City, New Jersey. Despite land falling as a post-tropical system, it left in its path some impressive weather statistics. Its central pressure was the lowest ever recorded for an Atlantic named storm, north of North Carolina, breaking a record set by the devastating ‘Long Island Express’ hurricane of 1938. It is also the first storm in recorded history to landfall in New Jersey at a perpendicular angle to the coastline. Furthermore, Sandy resulted in record surge heights along many parts of the East Coast including a tide surge reading of 14.60′ at Bergen Point, NJ. Its massive wind field had a diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall of 945 miles and is one of the largest ever recorded. Given Sandy’s uniqueness it should be no surprise that the cat models used by the insurance industry to understand hurricane risk would most likely have very few stochastic events that would provide guidance to the expected loss potential and should be used with caution when analyzing this event.

Sandy’s uniqueness has also raised many questions of the damage impact from aspects of the event which are not modeled or not modeled well. The exceptional size of the wind footprint, the scale of storm surge, the large number of lengthy power outages, and the impact to major infrastructure, have added to the considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the interpretation of insurance coverages, whether in relation to wind versus water, business interruption or windstorm deductibles.

Superstorm Sandy could easily place high on the list of the most costly hurricane losses for the insurance industry with insurance estimates ranging from $7 billion to over $20 billion and economic damage exceeding $50 billion. If Sandy causes $50 billion in economic damage (in 2012 dollars), it would rank as the 7th most damaging hurricane or tropical storm (out of 242) to hit the U.S. since 1900. The wake up factor is Sandy was far weaker than any other storm topping this list. Sandy was not even officially a hurricane when it made landfall along the U.S. coast. If Hurricane Irene in 2011, which impacted the Northeast as only a tropical storm, caused $4.3 billion in insured losses and didn’t raise questions as to how vulnerable the northeast coastline is, Superstorm Sandy will.

To learn more about BMS’ expert Analytical Services Team – click here.

BMS launches exclusive initiative to provide clients with innovative predictive modeling

BMS Group, the independent global broker, today announces that it has reached an agreement with leading US actuarial specialists Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. (Pinnacle) to provide predictive modeling to its clients.

Specialist predictive modeling has become an essential element in any leading-edge analytics tool kit and BMS has sought to ensure it can offer this innovative solution to its clients. Over the last 18 months BMS has significantly enhanced its Analytical Services division. Incorporating predictive modeling into its offering will allow BMS to give its clients a powerful range of tools to enhance their ability to assess and price risks, as well as improve claims and underwriting processes, leading to enhanced growth and profitability.

BMS’ Analytical Services team will work closely with Pinnacle, who will supply predictive modeling analyses and implementation support, as appropriate, to BMS clients. This joint venture is exclusive to BMS, as the only reinsurance intermediary Pinnacle is partnering with to offer its predictive modelling expertise to their primary company clients.

CEO, Carl Beardmore said:

We are proud to be able to make another industry-leading expert solution available to our clients. This exclusive relationship with Pinnacle will ensure our Analytical Services offering is one of the best in the business, providing clients with a tailored, cutting-edge package to meet their actuarial needs.”

Dave Spiegler, EVP and Chief Actuary, said:

BMS is committed to enhancing our analytical capabilities to offer our clients everything they expect and more. We look forward to working with experts of Pinnacle’s caliber, giving our clients the very best in predictive modeling services allowing them to better meet their growth and profitability goals. When BMS becomes your broker, our analytics team becomes part of your team and now Pinnacle will be part of that team too.”

Roosevelt Mosley, Principal and Consulting Actuary at Pinnacle, said:

We’re excited to be working with BMS to assist their clients in their predictive modeling needs. Whether it’s developing pricing models and rating relativities, evaluating new rating factors, analyzing underwriting processes, optimizing claim processes or developing claim fraud detection models, we’re ready to bring deep and extensive experience to BMS’s clients.”

PIAA Analysis – Unique Update Review

Dave Spiegler, EVP and Head Actuary at BMS, updates his unique analysis report on the profitability of the Physician Insurers Association of America (PIAA) companies and what it means for the MPL market.

Click here to read the full report.

Article – Analysis of PIAA members 2011 reported data

David Spiegler, Executive Vice President and Chief Actuary at BMS appears in the Physician Insurer Magazine, Second Quarter edition.

David talks about the findings of the BMS analysis of the 2011 data reported for the PIAA group of member companies.

Click here to read a PDF of the Article

“Reprinted from the Second Quarter 2012 issue of Physician Insurer Magazine, Physician Insurers Association of America. Copyright, 2012.”

Click here for more information on the BMS Analytical Services Team and Products.

A.M. Best 2012 Review & Preview Conference – P&C Highlights

Brett Bordelon, VP BMS Analytical Services, discusses the recent A.M. Best Review & Preview Conference and below is his summary report from the event.

A.M. Best 2012 Review & Preview Conference – P&C Highlights. This year, A.M. Best held its Review & Preview Conference on March 12-14 in Naples, FL. At the conference, A.M. Best and other insurance industry leaders provided their insights on the industry’s performance in 2011 and viewpoints on where the industry is heading in 2012. Senior A.M. Best analysts also gave presentations rich with insights on the rating process and rating methodologies.

Click on the link to read BMS’ P&C-focused recounting of many of the conference’s highlights.

Click here for our Analytical Services information page.

Analytics Feature – Asset classes & the MPL insurer

Mike Larson, BMS EVP and Head of Actuarial Services featured the Physician Insurer Magazine discussing the role of various asset classes in the portfolio of an MPL insurer.

Click here to read the full article

Reprinted from the first Quarter 2012 issue of Physician Insurer Magazine, Physician Insurers Association of America. Copyright, 2012.

Analytical Feature: Physician Insurer

Dave Spiegler, EVP & Chief Actuary and Mike Larson, EVP, featured in the Foresight feature in the Physician Insurer –  debating the interplay between the financial markets, medical professional liability (MPL) insurance companies’ rates and reserves and how MLP companies should be preparing for the next stage of the insurance cycle.

Click here to view the PDF of the full article

Reprinted from the fourth Quarter 2011 issue of Physician Insurer Magazine, Physician Insurers Association of America. Copyright, 2011.