The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. A lot of preseason forecasts are hyping the importance a developing El Niño will have on the overall tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, which should lead to less storm formation. However, a word of caution: there are plenty of examples of years with El Niños that had significant landfall activity across the U.S. Below is a list of the climate forcers that can influence named storm activity and how they will impact the 2014 season.
- A weak to moderate El Niño is expected to develop, reducing named storm activity across the main development region in the Atlantic Basin.
- A westerly to neutral Quasi-Biennial Oscillation will likely result in increased named storm development closer to the U.S. coastline, versus the development of Cape Verde-type storms.
- Saharan dust can limit overall development of named storms, but conditions across North Africa are not favorable for large Saharan dust outbreaks and should not reduce named storm activity this year, but this climate forcer can change rapidly over the season.
- Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than the long-term average, but this temperature is slightly below-average relative to the current period of heightened sea surface temperatures that began in the mid-1990s. This will likely reduce activity in the main development region.
- The sea surface temperatures are significantly above normal along the East Coast, which could increase development of named storms closer to the East Coast, increasing the threat of landfall.
The climate forcers above can provide an idea on the overall hurricane season activity, but, truthfully, there is little skill in predicting the total number of named storms and where they might make landfall. The best way for the insurance industry to prepare is to carefully consider the risks and their potential impact. BMS’ new weather risk management module in iVision can help carriers better understand their risk and manage portfolio accumulation in areas prone to hurricanes. iVision also has tools to track forecasted hurricanes, including detailed hurricane wind fields, which can help carriers understand the range of potential loss outcomes from landfalling hurricanes. Learn more about the Hurricane Risk Management Module.