First East Coast winter storm of the season

If you have been living under a rock the last few days, you might not know that the first big nor’easter of the 2015/2016 winter season is expected to hit the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend. This storm summary will focus on the insured impacts of and provide a historical context for this intensely forecasted event. However, it should be noted that much uncertainty accompanies the forecasts, so predicted impacts could change as the storm develops over the next two days.

The media hyp-o-meter around this storm is at an all-time high due to the fact that there is good agreement among all the various models we use that a big nor’easter is going to happen, and some of its impacts will be major or even record breaking.

 

Collapse from weight of snow
The biggest question that everyone wants answered is how much snow is going to fall. No one can accurately answer that question today, unfortunately. What we do know is that a number of factors will contribute to a high-moisture storm. In other words, there will be a lot of snow. It’s just not possible at this point to say where the most of the snow will fall – but plenty of forecasters are trying! I highly suggest following the local National Weather Services office for the most accurate snowfall forecasts.

NWS human-made snowfall grids look great ... continuous like a global model. Totals thru Sat 7 PM

NWS human-made snowfall grids look great … continuous like a global forecast model.  Totals thru Sat 7 PM. Source WeatherBell Ryan Maue

So far, the storm has slowly trended south on the weather models. Additionally, it has a very sharp temperature moisture gradient on the north side. Due to the uncertainties on the northern fringe of this storm, there’s going to be a razor thin margin between major snow and conversational snow. However, due to the lack of existing snow pack, collapse due to weight of snow at this point in the season is unlikely to cause insured losses to buildings with standard structural integrity.
Of course the first significant snowfall of the year also means drivers must adapt to slippery conditions which will result in accidents and higher auto related losses. Finally, the snow, ice and wind from this storm could also cause prolonged power outage which could results in insured losses.

 

Wind and flood risks
Despite the fact that most of the media coverage is focused on snowfall, potentially destructive wind and coastal flooding often go unreported. This storm is big and slow, and due to the tight pressure gradient, as the storm strengthens off the east coast, it will allow for a strong on-shore flow, which could cause damaging wind gusts and storm surge along the coast. Winds and flooding could cause serious issues for the insurance industry. Depending on its ultimate track, this storm has the potential to become one of the top 5-10 coastal flooding events for folks from the Jersey Shore into Virginia.

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A National Weather Service storm surge model forecasts water levels more than 5 feet above normal in parts of New Jersey and New York, rivaling some of the biggest coastal floods in history.

To illustrate the threat posed by this storm, consider that an 8.5 foot tide level would rank in the top 8 tide levels of all time at Cape May, New Jersey. As illustrated by the chart below, the Extratropical water Level Guidance from the National Weather Service, highlights the wind/flood risk associated with storm surge guidance for various cities along the coast. For Cape May, NJ, you’ll see the highest tide cycle for this storm ends up at a water level of about 8.5-8.7 feet.

CapeMayNJSurge

For historical comparison in the same location, consider that Sandy produced a tide level of 8.9 feet, an October, 2011, storm produced a tide level of 8.7 feet, and a December, 1992, storm produced a tide level of 8.6 feet.

NE_StormSurgeChart

Forecast as of 01/21/2016 9:20: EST (units in feet MLLW)

Insured property along the coast or back bays of New Jersey, Delmarva, and Virginia, are likely to be the most impacted as the storm has the possibility of lasting 2-3 high tide cycles. If the storm track shifts a bit or the intensity changes, we could see these values change. It’s a fluid but serious forecast for the insurance industry: the coast is where the highest winds will hit, and those winds may gust as high as those of a tropical storm. Speaking of winds, expect severe storms to produce wind damage and possibly an isolated tornado across the state of Florida.

 

Insured Loss Analogs
Historically, the East Coast is no stranger to large nor’easters. In fact, last year’s large snow event and winter time insured losses should be fresh in the insurance industry’s mind given the record breaking snowfall over New England and one of the costliest winters ever for the industry.
On average over a 56-year period, 1.3 nor’easter occur every year, and 2.3 large snow storm events occur as defined by the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). In the last ten years, these non-inflation adjusted event level losses have averaged out to cost just over $300M per event.
The table below provides a few analog storms that resemble the forecast guidance for the current storm. Right now, the model guidance does not suggest a repeat of the first Superstorm / “Storm of the Century” (March 12 – 15th of 1993) which still stands as the costliest nor’easter to impact the insurance industry.
NE_SnowStormEventLossChart

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Source: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

BMS Group appoints Ryan Jones as Director of Cyber Risk Intelligence

BMS Group Limited (“BMS”), the independent specialist insurance and reinsurance broker, today announces the appointment of Ryan Jones as Director of Cyber Risk Intelligence. He takes up his position with immediate effect, reporting to Ian Gormley, Managing Director, BMS Risk Solutions.

Ryan has extensive experience as a cyber risk specialist and has advised a number of (re)insurance brokers, Lloyd’s syndicates and (re)insurance businesses on cyber protection, risk management and building and managing enterprise risk management programmes. Ryan previously had a successful career as a Sergeant of Marines with the United States Marine Corps.

Ian Gormley, Managing Director, BMS Risk Solutions said:

“I’m delighted to welcome Ryan to BMS, whose hire represents another significant step in our plan to build a market leading Cyber Intelligence Division. His specialist technical expertise and broad knowledge of cyber security will play a key role in our continual drive to be a one stop shop for our clients, as we develop a broking team that’s devoted to providing cyber risk solutions to our diverse client portfolio.”

Ryan Jones commented:

“I’m very pleased to be joining BMS. Cyber risks and exposures are complex, varied and continually evolving in the way they are assessed by both insurers and insureds. BMS’ internationally recognised brand offers the perfect platform from which to build and develop a team of devoted cyber experts who will facilitate cyber risk solutions for both existing and new clients.”