partner login

BMS News

BMS Group appoints Simon Kemp as group chief legal counsel

BMS Group Limited (“BMS”), the independent specialist insurance and reinsurance broker, today announces that Simon Kemp has been appointed group chief legal counsel, effective 1st November. Simon will be based in London and reports to Nick Cook, BMS Group CEO. He joins from Clyde & Co, where he is a partner, once he has joined BMS he will continue part-time at Clyde & Co as a Consultant.

Simon has practiced in the London market since 1984. His specialisms include coverage disputes with an international element, regulatory issues for businesses and individuals and employment law. He is also currently the joint editor of Thomson Reuters’ “Law of Insurance Broking”.

BMS Group CEO Nick Cook said:

“As BMS continues on a path of strategic growth and attracts talent in both established and emerging markets, the expertise and experience of individuals such as Simon becomes invaluable. We have ambitious plans, both internationally and in the London market, and, with Simon in place, we are confident in the knowledge that we have one of the leading legal lights in the sector. I would like to warmly welcome Simon to BMS and look forward to working with him.”

Simon Kemp said:

“BMS Group is a dynamic, growing and entrepreneurial business, one of the outstanding brokers in the market. There is huge ambition and appetite for growth, and I am very much looking forward to working with Nick and the team to take these plans forward.”

BMS Tropical Update: 10/11/2018 11 AM CDT

Hurricane Michael became the most intense hurricane on record to strike the Florida Panhandle when it made landfall at 1:00 p.m. CDT on Wednesday. It will also be among the most intense hurricanes to ever have hit the U.S. At landfall, the storm’s 155 mph peak winds ranked fourth highest on record for a hurricane hitting the continental U.S., and the pressure was ranked as the third lowest (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm), even below what was recorded during Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Table of the 10 strongest continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes on record, ranked by maximum sustained winds. Source: Philip Klotzbach CSU

This is truly a historic event. As I mentioned yesterday, this storm was only a marginal threat six days ago when it first appeared on some of the long-range model guidance, which illustrates that the scientific community has a lot of work to do in terms of intensity forecasts. In fact, Michael’s rapid deepening, which is defined as less than or equal to a pressure drop of 42 mb in 24 hours, is rare. Only 23 hurricanes in the last 38 years have done this, and Michael was the only hurricane to have this occur right at landfall.

Location of rapidly deepening hurricanes from 1979 – 2017.  Source: Sam Lillo

Hurricane Michael made landfall in Mexico Beach, FL, about 20 miles southeast of Panama City, as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, and I would not be surprised if it was upgraded to a Category 5 when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) conducts its final review of the data.

As the storm crashed ashore, winds gusted to as high as 129 mph along the coast from Panama City to Port St. Joe. The highest storm surge reading that has been observed so far was an inundated level of just over 8.57 feet in Apalachicola, FL – which is the 3rd highest on a new record.  Other areas likely recorded their record highest.

Preliminary wind gust observations from Hurricane Michael. Source:  Here 

Much of the news coverage during landfall was in Panama City Beach, FL. However, the impact at this location was a picnic compared to what occurred just miles east and southeast down the coast where the eye of Michael made landfall. The heaviest damage appears to be in the towns of Callaway, Parker, Springfield, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe and southeast Panama City, FL. This would suggest that the radius of maximum winds was relatively narrow at landfall (22 miles) and, thankfully, just inland from landfall, Michael tracked over a large sparsely populated area of mostly agricultural land and forest. However, that does not mean that some of the smaller towns or rural households did not see damage. For example, In Donaldsville, GA, which is 82 miles inland from Panama City, FL there was a recorded wind gust of 115 mph that still needs to be verified, but at least a 79 mph gust was reported . Blountstown, FL seems to have been hit particularly hard which is about 40 miles inland. The weather station in Albany, GA recorded a wind gust of 74 mph just before transmission failure occurred.  In fact, to get an idea of where the worst of the damage might be, one just has to look at the lack of surface weather observations due to an absence of site reporting and power outages.

Weather surface observations showing a large gap in observations as a result of very strong wind taking down many of the observations sites. Source: NOAA

 

BMS iVision allows clients to run risks to better understand various impacts from Michael. This is the newest 3 sec wind speed gust in MPH from Verisk Weather Solutions.  There will be some adjustment to this as Verisk Weather Solutions will incorporate surface observations over the next few days for intensity.

There are several reports of weather station anemometers breaking in the high winds, which is why it is possible that wind speeds of greater than 129 mph may have occurred near the landfall location. Given the data that has already been collected, it is plausible that Hurricane Michael will be a design-level event, especially at the immediate coastline and barrier islands along the Florida Panhandle.

Based on an examination of the catastrophe modeling stochastic events that closely match Michael’s landfall location and intensity, insurance industry losses should be in the single-digit billions of dollars. But, as we have seen with past events in Florida, there can be some loss creep, so how high remains uncertain. The big unknown in the modeling at this point is how much property damage occurred in the rural communities inland as Michael tracked into Georgia.

Storm Chaser Accounts
A good gauge of Hurricane Michael’s severity is to get firsthand accounts from the storm chasers who travel the world into the heart of the strongest hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. Their observations really tell the story of what the hardest hit areas are dealing with in the wake of Michael.
Hurricane storm chaser Josh Morgerman (icyclone) likely has the world record for experiencing the most intense hurricanes all over the world. Those who follow him know he is not prone to exaggeration. Here is his account of the situation in Callaway, FL, via Twitter: “It’s hard to convey in words the scale of the catastrophe in Panama City. The whole city looks like a nuke was dropped on it. I’m literally shocked at the scale of the destruction.”

 


Mark Sudduth, another experienced storm chaser, tweeted similar thoughts: “Drove from Panama City almost to Mexico Beach and I can tell you this is the worst damage from wind that I have ever seen! Absolutely catastrophic! You will not believe your eyes when you see it.”

Michael’s End Game
Hurricane Michael is far from over. Heavy rain and strong winds are still forecasted to sweep through the Carolinas today before exiting the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. Currently 35 miles south southeast of Charlotte, NC, tornado risk is now the biggest threat with local wind gusts capable of bringing down tree limbs.

As we look into next week, we begin to move past this early October period of enhanced Atlantic Basin activity. We can’t entirely rule out new named storm development next week, but, the very good news is that the risk for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to decrease sharply over the coming weeks as a hybrid El Niño winter pattern begins to take hold.

BMS Tropical Update: 10/10/2018 11 AM CDT

Based on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 5:00 a.m. advisory, Hurricane Michael’s pressure had fallen 36 millibars in 25 hours and the wind speed had increased 46 mph over the same timeframe. Having moved into an ideal environment for maximum intensity, with little wind shear, warm water, and a moist air mass with little dry air intrusion, such strengthening was expected, but the extent is still unknown. Michael is currently a Category 4 hurricane with a central pressure of 923, and a maximum wind speed of 150. For a hurricane, Michael is moving fairly quickly to the northeast at 14 mph and is currently 60 miles South Southwest from Panama City, FL.

Given that the hurricane is a few hours from making landfall just southeast of Panama City, FL, the question is, how much more strengthening may occur before landfall? There is a chance that an eyewall replacement cycle could result in a similar or slightly lower intensity, but if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs immediately before landfall, there is a chance that Michael could be an even stronger storm with a larger radius of maximum wind.

Michael arriving as a Category 4 hurricane puts it in a rare group of only four historical Category 4 hurricanes to make landfall during the month of October (Unnamed, Louisiana, Oct. 2, 1893, Unnamed, Georgia, Oct. 2, 1898, King, Florida, Oct. 18, 1950 and Hazel, Carolinas, Oct. 15, 1954). In total, only 28 U.S. landfalls of Category 4-strength storms have occurred since 1850, and there has never been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle. With Michael’s impending landfall as a Category 4 storm, it would be the fourth Category 4 hurricane in just 15 months to hit the U.S. The previous record for the shortest timespan of four Category 4 U.S. landfalls was 1947 – 1950. Needless to say, the long period without a major hurricane making U.S. landfall is starting to correct itself in a big way.

Given the change in the overall intensity forecast, most of the catastrophe model guidance issued yesterday will need to be adjusted upward to account for the stronger storm at landfall, as most guidance issued did not contemplate this scenario. However, there are plenty of stochastic events for comparison, and there should not be an issue of limited matching, like some of the more recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

Damage Specifics
I have already touched on the likelihood of massive tree loss in the last few updates, but clearly the increased intensity at landfall confirms that treefall will lead to larger insured losses and will lengthen expected power outages. Unfortunately, this scenario is not handled well in the catastrophe models.

Estimated Poweroutages. In some places it is 100% Source: http://ioe-guikema.engin.umich.edu/Hurricane_Michael.html

Michael’s strength is now at the upper end of what building codes can handle and, while Florida has the best building codes in the country, most structures were built before these codes were enacted, and retrofits have been limited.

While Florida has the best building codes in the state, most structures were built before they were enacted, and retrofits have been limited. Source: David Roueche

 

Wind Swath
Using Verisk Weather Solutions forecasted wind swath allows BMS clients to better understand wind impact to specific risks. Currently, the wind swath suggests a radius of maximum winds to be about 26 miles wide, which is fairly tight for a hurricane. Shortly after landfall, frictional effects rapidly weaken the maximum wind speeds inland. In addition, Tallahassee should be spared any hurricane-force winds, which is a bit of better news, as insured loss will be limited in this large metro area. But, some damage and power outages could still occur.

BMS iVision allows clients to run risks to better understand various impacts from Michael. This is the newest 3 sec wind speed gust in MPH from Verisk Weather Solutions. There will be some adjustment to this swath over the next few days as Verisk Weather Solutions incorporates surface observations.

Storm Surge
There is no doubt that record storm surge will be recorded, as storm surge values of four feet are already showing up in Apalachicola, FL. The next high tide will be just after 6:00 p.m., which should be a few hours after landfall, so, fortunately, Michael is not coming ashore during high tide.
The NHC is suggesting the following storm surge levels:

  • Tyndall Air Force Base, FL to Aucilla River, FL: 9 to 14 feet
  • Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Tyndall Air Force Base, FL: 6 to 9 feet
  • Aucilla River, FL to Cedar Key, FL: 6 to 9 feet
  • Cedar Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL: 4 to 6 feet

    Source: NHC

Rural Areas
It appears that, like some of the other devastating Category 4 hurricanes, Michael will also target an area of relatively lower population. However, Panama City has a large amount of exposure and will be the main driver of loss and, like most other U.S. coastal cities, has experienced a tremendous amount of growth over the last 30 years. Most of the other targeted areas inland remain very rural, however.

]Panama City, FL development since 1985.  Source: Walker Ashley

The NHC Cone of Uncertainty overlayed with Census block Household data showing many block areas have less than 600 households.

Here we take the details of the iVision wind swath with the aerial imagery applied to the base map. The radius of maximum winds is forecasted to be about 22 miles at landfall. The strongest winds are forecasted to impact the first 14 miles of coastal exposure as indicated by the first short green line, with the red line indicating areas of higher development. Most of the strongest winds will be over Forest or Agriculture land. Click on image for more detail.

The building codes inland are not as strong as in the coastal areas, such as Panama City, Fl. The older age of the homes inland, coupled with the potential for tree fall, make for uncertain loss estimates. Hurricane Irma illustrated that there are clearly loss creep issues occurring across the state, which will also add to the overall uncertainty around potential losses to the insurance industry.  An early look at some of the catastrophe model guidance suggests a mid to high single-digit billion dollar loss event, but the impacts to Panama City need to be watched closely.

Never Judge a Book By Its Cover
Remember to never judge a hurricane season until it’s over and in the books. This recent uptick in activity is putting the current season back into the “above normal” category, as we now have the development of Tropical Storm Nadine in the East Atlantic, along with Leslie returning to hurricane status on its 19th day of spinning up ACE in the middle of the Atlantic. And, of course, to close out the story, we have a surprise Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I think that the scientific community needs to provide more accurate seasonal forecasts and move away from the numbers game, which often leads to false impressions of a season. More attention needs to be focused instead on landfall activity. It is no longer acceptable to believe, as the old insurance industry saying goes, that it “only takes one,” since this year there has been two. Hopefully, I made this message clear at the beginning of the season. The good news is that this may be the end game for this season in terms of U.S. landfalls, as a less favorable pattern for new development takes hold across the Atlantic later next week.

BMS Tropical Update: 10/09/2018 11 AM CDT  

Just two years ago we were talking about Hurricane Hermine breaking the 11-year hurricane drought in Florida. With all of the recent U.S. hurricane activity, it’s easy to forget that this drought even occurred, but let’s remember that there are large gaps of the U.S. coastline that have not experienced a major hurricane in a long time. The Panhandle of Florida is one of them, as it has not seen a major hurricane in well over 10 years. For context, iPhones had not yet been released when Hurricane Dennis impacted the Panhandle in 2005. Over this time period, there has also been rapid growth of coastal communities around Destin and Panama City, FL. There are certainly new residents in this area who have never experienced a major hurricane.

Forecasted Track and Intensity
There is good news that Hurricane Michael did not rapidly intensify overnight, and it only showed a small increase in intensity. A fully concentric eyewall has yet to develop, with dry air and wind shear being the likely cause of the lack of rapid intensification overnight. There are some signs that significant strengthening has already began today, as some lightning and deeper convection seem to be initiating eyewall development, and the overall storm seems to be consolidating. Michael is located 360 miles south of Panama City, FL. The current wind speed is 110 mph which is already an increase of 20 mph from the 4 AM NHC Advisory and barometric pressure is 965 mb.

While there is still some uncertainty around Michael’s intensity at the time of landfall, the model track guidance has been accurate since this weekend. The projected path has been targeting an area between Destin and Port St. Joe, FL, with a likely probability (60%) of hurricane-force winds impacting the capital city of Tallahassee.

In the BMS Tropical Update yesterday, I touched on several factors that could lead to Michael’s strengthening and also some that may limit it, such as the lack of a Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and just slightly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) that Michael will encounter along its track northward. A lot of the intensity questions at landfall will depend on the circumstances over the next 24 hours and whether Michael can intensify enough before making landfall tomorrow afternoon.  Currently it seem to be progressing to major hurricane status later today.

Based on the intensity guidance from an ensemble of models, Michael will at least maintain its current strength until landfall.  Source: www.TropicalTidbits.com

Above is an ensemble of intensity forecasts.  There is agreement that Hurricane Michael will likely be at least a Category 2 storm at landfall, with some of the more reliable hurricane-specific intensity models suggesting that strengthening will occur right up until landfall, which is an important point. Some models suggest an even stronger storm which needs to be watched. Currently, the NHC forecast is still suggesting the wind speed at the time of landfall is expected to be 126 mph, with higher 3 second gusts possible. The overall size of the storm, which is sometimes referred to as the RMAX, is a bit unknown at this time, as eye wall replacement cyclones and the overall intensity of the storm will determine this over the next 24 hours. The forward motion of the storm at landfall appears to be relatively fast (16 mph), which could extend damage further inland as the storm weakens. These stronger inland winds will likely cause power failures and downed trees over a large area. Wind gusts of 70 mph are likely over southwestern Georgia.

Wind Risk
Using Verisk Weather Solutions forecasted wind swath allows BMS clients to better understand wind impacts to specific risks. This high-resolution model wind field shows hurricane-force winds rapidly weakening inland due to a frictional effect, which is important when determining the overall damage estimation to inland risks.

BMS iVision allows clients to run risks to better understand various impacts from Michael. This is the newest 3 sec wind speed gust in MPH from Verisk Weather Solutions. There will be some adjustment to this forecast over the next few days in both track and intensity.

However, this predicted weakening of winds inland does not mean that the winds won’t be strong enough to knock down some trees. As mentioned in yesterday’s update, the tree cover in the Florida Panhandle, particularly from Apalachicola up to Tallahassee, is dense. This is why much weaker Hurricane Hermine caused such extended power outages that lasted weeks in some locations. It does not take a major hurricane to cause significant wind impact in the Florida Panhandle – the peak wind gust reported in Tallahassee from Hurricane Hermine was only 64 mph. Clearly Michael’s degree of disruption will be several times worse in terms of power outages when it comes ashore. With all of the foliage and the lack of major hurricane activity over the last 10 years, a natural culling of weak and damaged trees and branches can be expected. And, of course, even tropical storm-force winds can cause minor damage to structures. This could complicate the overall loss estimate from the modeling companies, although they do try to take into account tree density around individual risks.

Above ground biomas thickness (Trees). The darkest greens indicate areas with the densest, tallest, and most-robust forest growth (Grieser et al., 2011)

Source: Estimated Poweroutages. In some places it is 100% http://ioe-guikema.engin.umich.edu/Hurricane_Michael.html

 

Tornado Risk
An often overlooked aspect of a landfalling hurricane is the tornado threat. I made several mentions to this prior to Florence making landfall, which resulted in over 40 confirmed tornadoes. I would also expect several dozen tornadoes to occur with Michael as it comes ashore and races across the southeastern states.

Storm Surge Risk

Likely one of the biggest stories from Hurricane Michael will be the storm surge.  I am sure some storm surge records will be broken. The Florida Panhandle is very susceptible to this, but the extent of the surge will depend on the overall track and intensity of the storm. To illustrate, Dr. Risk Luettich at University of North Carolina Chapel Hill ran a few simulations along the NHC cone of uncertainty which shows that the exact track of Hurricane Michael will determine the storm surge, estimated to be as high as 12 feet if the worst case scenario develops between Indian Pass, FL and Ceder Key, FL.

The best tool for estimating storm surge is the NHC storm surge inundation product, which provides a detailed look at the water level that is expected above the ground. The catastrophe models have a good handle on the various storm surge scenarios that are possible based on the track and intensity.


Early Insured Loss Estimates
Today the catastrophe modeling companies will continue to zero in on stochastic model event selection. Based on the historical catalog, there are plenty of comparable events for the companies to use for loss analysis. As pointed out, there are some unknown variables that are a bit harder to model, such as tree fall and power outages. Florida has some of the best building codes in the country, however the standards in the Panhandle are not as high as southern Florida. This will be key along with the construction quality over more interior parts of the panhandle and Southern Georgia. However, the degree of damage from lower wind speeds is often overlooked for older wood frame building which are common in the region.

Just one sample of Probability of Damage from a 2 story wood-frame.

Overall, insured loss from wind and storm surge from the historical and modeled stochastic events appear to have a range between $1B and $3.5B. The actual loss will depend highly on the parameters and location of landfall. If the storm tracks to the east side of the NHC cone of uncertainty, which is a rural area, damage should be lower, but tracking too far to the east will increase inland loss in Tallahassee.

BMS Tropical Update 10/08/2018 10 AM CDT

Twenty-one days ago, I made mention that the Atlantic Hurricane Season was not done yet and, overall, the tropical troubles in the Atlantic Ocean would be shutting down for a few weeks. This has been the case for the most part, with very few of the named storms since Florence resulting in any meaningful ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). Really, named storm Leslie has been the only system to have had any significant ACE accumulate in the North Atlantic. However, all of that is about to change. I previously made mention that the next burst of upward motion would be back over the Atlantic during the first week of October and, like clockwork, on October 2 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a broad area of low pressure that had developed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. After taking most of last week to get organized, this system is now known as Hurricane Michael and is currently located 50 miles south of the western tip of Cuba.

Above is the NHC reasonable arrival of tropical storm force winds as of  NHC advisory number 7.

Michael has already caused significant flooding across Central America with at least nine fatalities across several countries. Unfortunately, the forecast suggests that more damage is expected over the next few days as Michael moves north over the warm waters of the Western Caribbean. In fact, these warm waters will be key to Michael’s final intensity at landfall as it tracks toward the Big Bend area along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Storm Fuel
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are average to slightly below-average, (29°-30° C or 84°-86° F) in the Western Caribbean and Eastern Gulf, but it is still plenty of  fuel to feed Michael as it heads northward.

Above is the SST analysis from www.TropicalTidbits.com showing the water temperatures are plenty warm along Michael’s track northward to allow for strengthening.

Another factor that might be at play in terms of potential fuel for Michael as it tracks north is how much it will churn up deep, colder water, which might put the brakes on any major rapid intensification. But, when unusually warm ocean waters extend to depths 100 meters or more below the surface, the hurricane’s winds simply stir up more warm water and allow dangerous and rapid intensification to occur if wind shear is low.

The plot above is the depth of the 26 degree isotherm (78.8 F). Currently where Michael is located the depth of this warm water is over 100 meters (328 ft). The good news is the old loop current is to the west of Michael’s projected track so the warm water is not as deep along its track northward. Source: NOAA

Michael will be tracking right over the deepest warm water, which is often referred to as the Loop Current — an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and then goes west of the Bahamas as the Gulf Stream Current. Often, the Loop Current bulges into the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. When this occurs, it can add even more fuel to passing storms.

The Loop Current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Every 6 – 11 months, a bulge in the current cuts off into a clockwise-rotating eddy that then drifts slowly west-southwestward toward Texas.  Source: NOAA

The good news is that it appears Michael will pass to the east of the last Loop Current eddy, which will limit some fuel for Michael as it tracks northward. But, this doesn’t mean that Michael won’t reach Category 3. It just indicates that the top-end intensity will be limited, as was observed with Katrina or even Harvey last year, which was fueled by an old Loop Current eddy.
The other factor to consider that may limit intensity is the westerly shear near the storm as it tracks northward toward the Florida Big Bend Gulf Coast. However, despite 30 knots of wind shear, Michael has still managed to strengthen over the last 24 hours and has already had an impressive 982 mb central pressure. If wind shear weakens, Michael could continue to strengthen and potentially make landfall as a weak Category 3 hurricane.

Based on the intensity guidance from an ensemble of models, Michael will strengthen until landfall. In fact, the there is a 36% chance of achieving major hurricane intensity in the next 24 hours. Source:  www.TropicalTidbits.com

No Stranger To Named Storm Activity

Historical hurricane tracks within 65 mile radius centered just south of Tallahassee, FL with a filter applied to show 11 category 2 and 3 hurricanes have made landfall in the area since 1850.

The Florida Panhandle has been no stranger to hurricane activity over the last three years.  In fact, since 1850, 11 category 2 and 3 hurricanes have made landfall in the location under watch from Michael.  The most recent being Hurricane Kate 1985 which today would result in close to one billion of industry loss.  Subtropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Gordon have already caused $168M of loss this year to the insurance industry to in the Gulf Coast States. The often forgotten Hurricane Nate in last year’s busy U.S. landfall season impacted the same general area with similar insured loss.  In 2016, just over $200M in insured losses resulted from Tropical Storm Colin and Hurricane Hermine, which, as mentioned, might be the best overall analog for the industry at this time. In Florida, Hermine’s impact was enhanced by the natural bend in the coastline and abnormally high tides, with heavy precipitation along the Gulf Coast causing significant damage. In Citrus County, FL, one of the worst affected areas, 2,694 homes were damaged, of which 531 experienced severe damage. If you recall, the Big Bend area has a high tree density which, during Hermine, resulted in large number of power outages that stretched for weeks in locations all the way to the Tallahassee area, which was hit particularly hard with tree fall.

Michael’s impacts could be multiplied here since it is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. The current model guidance suggests a landfall location between Miramar Beach to Apalachicola, FL, with the American GFS model suggesting a faster storm making landfall on Wednesday afternoon, while the European ECMWF model is predicting Thursday morning. However, regardless of timing, the insurance industry impact could be significant. The U.S. coastline between Indian Pass to Crystal River is one of the most vulnerable locations to storm surge. The current forecast suggests up to 11 feet of storm surge in this area, which could go even higher as Michael intensifies so don’t be surprised if values above 11 feet start to show up in the forecast.

Unlike Florence, Michael will not linger and will move rapidly to the northeast across Central Georgia and southern South Carolina. There will be a swath of 4-8 inches of heavy rain just along and to the northwest of the center of the storm.
With a delayed autumn, all the leaves are still on the trees across a large portion of the southeast, which will exacerbate power outages. The highest wind gusts are expected along the coast from Destin, FL to Tayler and Wakulla counties and, as with Hermine, strong winds will have a big impact all the way into Tallahassee, which has the largest population area of the locations under threat, with the rest of the coastline being fairly rural.

BMS iVision allows clients to run risks to better understand various impacts from Michael. This is the newest 3 sec wind speed gust in MPH from Verisk Weather Solutions. There will be some adjustment to this forecast over the next few days in both track and intensity.