Hermine made landfall near St. Marks, Florida, around 1:30 am EDT with winds of 80 mph, making it a strong category 1 hurricane at landfall. As predicted, flooding rains, storm surge and tree fall have been the biggest insured impacts and overall should result in a minimal loss for the insurance industry. The storm has now weakened to a tropical storm near Savannah, Georgia. However, as mentioned in previous posts, Hermine will continue to track overland for the next 24 hours and exit the U.S. coastline near the outer banks of North Carolina. Unfortunately however, as we have seen over the last 16 days, the overall energy of this system is persistent. It now appears that Hermine won’t go away any time soon. After Hermine exits the East Coast, it will become a “post tropical” storm. This means that the storm will actually grow in size, and given that the water is as warm as it can possibly get off the East Coast of the U.S., it will continue to fuel Hermine’s circulation.

Below is a look at the warm sea surface temperatures off the East Coast.

Aug31_SST

Rule of thumb: 26C can maintain a tropical system. 28C can easily intensify it.

After Hermine moves off the East Coast, it will likely merge with a large-scale mid-latitude trough which will slow Hermine’s overall movement. Therefore, all but a few of the forecast models suggest that Hermine will stall over a 3-to-4-day period.

ECMWF_Sept2_Ens00z_Hermine

ECMWF ensembles: Most members “Stall” Hermine, some members hook inland, others out to sea. Still some uncertainty watch closely.

Hermine_Sept2_12z_HuModelsjpg

Where Hermine takes turn to North and stalls will be an important factor for Mid-Atlantic impacts. The farther east, the better

 

This is bad new for the barrier islands and beach communities along the Mid Atlantic. Historically high amounts beach erosion will occur with a very constant wind direction for several days. Keep in mind that this constant flow of water will continue to push water into the back bays, and this water will have no outlet. This will result in major coastal flooding, and perhaps even record flooding, along the New Jersey coastline.  The latest extra-tropical storm surge map forecast can be be found here:

njcapemay_Stormsurge

Major to record flooding forecast Sunday night for many stations along NJ coastline. Record at Cape May is 9.0 feet from January Nor’easter. These forecasts will change several times a day and will depend on the track of Hermine.

 

The winds over this 3-to-4-day period will be very similar to a strong nor’easter, and regardless of how the system is classified and where it might wobbles off the East Coast, tropical storm force winds could blow in many areas of the coastline. There is even a chance that Hermine could regain hurricane status. I have already made my point this week that the NHC seems to be treating the hurricane classification as a classroom lecture. Right now, the storm’s classification is far less important than its ultimate impacts.

NHC_WindProb
There are very few storms of this size that have stalled off the East Coast. One of those storms was the Ash Wednesday Storm (1962) and Hurricane Esther (1961), both of which produced significant insured impacts along the East Coast.

 

Esther_1961_track

Hurricane Esther was the first large tropical cyclone to be discovered by satellite imagery. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Esther#New_England

Great video talking about the storm of 1962 and the lessons that have been learned and why one might not see the same type of damage today.