Summary

  • Matthew is still a powerful category 4 hurricane 340 miles southwest of  Port Au Prince, Haiti.
  • Matthew is a very small storm with hurricane force winds only extending out from the center 25 miles.
  • Matthew’s impact to Haiti will be devastating.  Flooding rains and a rare hit from the south will make this a unique event.
  • Forecast track guidance has been shifting eastward over the last 24 hrs
  • Florida landfall threat appears to be off the table with only a very small probability at this time.
  • Less weakening from higher topography is now forecasted as Matthew passes between Cuba and Haiti.
  • North of the Bahamas, Matthew is still expected to be a major hurricane.
  • Beyond the five day forecast, models are still playing the game of back and forth with the forecasted track north of the Bahamas.  There is no change in the landfall probabilities from yesterday which still stand at a 35% probability of US landfall during the course of Matthew’s trek north and a 65% likelihood of staying out to sea beyond the Bahamas.  It should be noted that the forecast is still complicated and any northeast landfall is still a week away.

Matthew  Impacts

Matthew has now finally turned North and is moving at a northwest direction at a slow speed 5 mph. Matthew’s smaller size storm might be one of the only positives of a major hurricane hitting Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.  Currently Matthew’s eye is only 12 miles across and hurricane force winds only extend out from the center 25 miles.  Matthew will continue to grow in size as it moves northward, but its small size should keep overall wind damage at a minimum as the strongest winds (Right side of hurricane) hit Haiti.

102matthewsmallsize1

 

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The biggest impact to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti will be flooding rains.  Up to 40” of rain is forecasted over Haiti which will be devastating for this poorly developed country.  Overall insurance penetration is low in Haiti and many areas are still recovering from the devastating 2010 earthquake.

102matthewrainfall

It should be noted this is rainfall from yesterday forecast. Today’s has not been posted yet, but I expect similar amounts

Over the last 24 hours the official NHC forecast track has been shifting eastward. This means less impact to Jamaica and more impact to Haiti.  This also decreases the overall probability of any Florida impacts to the insurance industry.

102matthewnhcguidance

Past 24 hours of NHC Official forecast tracks. The darker the color the more recent the forecast track.

The track northward in-between Haiti and Cuba will limit the impact of higher terrain.  This rare southern side impact will result in a rare impact for Haiti and will lead to issues of storm surge not usually seen on the southern bays and inlets.

102matthewraresoutherntrack

No Category 4 hurricane as come up from the south in this part of the Caribbean Sea.

Beyond 5 day Forecast

Forecast model guidance and very warm sea surface temperatures along the east coast of the U.S. will allow Matthew to maintain its major hurricane status north of the Bahamas and possibly north of North Carolina.

102matthewintensity

Most model guidance maintain a major hurricane for the entire forecast period.

Beyond the five day forecast, models are still playing the game of back and forth with the forecast track north of the Bahamas.  There is no change in the landfall probabilities from yesterday which still stand at a 35% probability of US landfall during the course of Matthew’s trek north and a 65% likelihood of staying out to sea beyond the Bahamas.  It should be noted that the forecast is still complicated and any northeast landfall is still a week away.  Below is a look at the WSI calibrated hurricane risk products from the GFS and ECMWF models suggesting a 50% chance Matthew will make U.S landfall.  My probability is lower at this time which is more inline with the current NHC official forecast.

102matthewgfs

GFS hurricane risk.  Over 60% chance U.S. will see hurricane landfall.

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ECMWF forecast suggesting U.S has a 50% chance of hurricane landfall.