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BMS launches Severe Weather Analytics

BMS Group announces a new weather risk management module as part of its iVision™ suite of analytical tools and services.
The unique new analytical tools allow carriers to better understand their risk and manage portfolio accumulations in areas prone to tornadoes, hail, straight-line winds and hurricanes.
The new module introduces expanded weather analytics features that make it even easier for insurers to manage severe storm risk. These features include:

  • Live weather feeds from NOAA
  • Daily severe storm shape files featuring AER Respond weather data, highlighting tornado paths, active hail areas, hail size and density
  • Active and forecasted hurricane tracks including detailed hurricane wind-field shapes
  • Historical PCS event library with one-of-a-kind PCS cat event shape files, available exclusively from BMS

“iVision’s new analytical tools augment traditional cat modeling results by enabling users to modify and alter damage ratio and track assumptions for tangible, definable events, which allows them to arrive at a view of loss they can have confidence in,” says Julie Serakos, head of BMS’ Cat Analytics group.
These new weather analytics features facilitate the understanding of the loss potential in a portfolio (thereby stress-testing its vulnerability to loss) by allowing for custom damage ratios to be applied against storm attributes. Additionally, testing portfolio sensitivity to the hurricane track increases confidence in the range of potential loss outcomes for landfalling events.

About iVision
BMS’ iVision is an easy-to-use catastrophe risk management system carriers can access online. Built on the latest GIS technologies, it helps today’s insurance companies increase efficiency and effectiveness in managing their catastrophic risk. iVision’s other analytical features include BMS’ proprietary ScenarioView™ for DIY event analysis, and RiskReveal™ location cat modeling (featuring AIR and RMS cat models) for underwriting. These features let carriers manage large loss exposures and ensure adequate premium before a policy is bound.

Hurricane Wilma’s 8th Anniversary

As we approach the end of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season and take in the media attention around the anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, it is also important to mark the 8th anniversary of Hurricane Wilma’s landfall, which occurred October 24, 2005. This was the last major hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. coastline. It has now been 2,938 days without a major landfalling hurricane – remarkable given the changes scientists said might result from warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. The U.S. landfalling hurricane event data set is one of the best meteorological records that exist in the U.S. In looking at the historical landfall record, the longest period without a major landfalling hurricane stands at 3,316 days (August 11, 1860 – September 8, 1869). If a major hurricane doesn’t make landfall in the U.S. next year, we will surpass the longest period without one.

Unless we are in some very unusual climate state that has not been discovered, there is a growing disconnect between overall Atlantic Basin activity and landfalling named storms. While the average overall Basin numbers are higher than normal since 2006, with every passing year since then the U.S. has seen only 19 named storms make landfall, and only six hurricanes – with no major hurricanes making landfall. This translates to a landfall rate of 0.75.

Using the landfall data from 1900, in a given year the expected landfall rate of a hurricane impacting the U.S. coastline is 1.5, with a 77% probability of at least one hurricane impacting the U.S. coastline. For major hurricanes the rate is 0.5 with a 40% probability – so the U.S. landfall rate is significantly below average.

Given this landfalling hurricane drought, the United States coastline has been lucky. Although insurance companies have been suffering losses of other types over it, the average annual hurricane loss during this drought has been just $4.9 billion, according to Property Claims Services. This is below the long-term average annual loss of $6.4 billion as calculated using the insured historical loss data from Dr. Pielke Jr., a database that attempts to normalize hurricane damages in the United States. Accounting for Superstorm Sandy in 2012, which was not a hurricane at landfall, this average annual loss since 2006 would increase to $7.7 billion.

With a below normal landfall rate of only 0.75 hurricanes since 2006, in the future the trend for more landfalls should correct back closer to the long-term rate if we assume that hurricane landfalls follow a poisson distribution and we are not in some unknown climate regime. After all, the probability of not having a major hurricane make landfall over a 9-year period is a very low 1%, meaning insurance companies should expect an increase in losses from hurricanes in the future. Something to ponder as we await next year’s forecast.

PIAA Analysis – Unique Update Review

Dave Spiegler, EVP and Head Actuary at BMS, updates his unique analysis report on the profitability of the Physician Insurers Association of America (PIAA) companies and what it means for the MPL market.

Click here to read the full report.

Analytics Feature – Asset classes & the MPL insurer

Mike Larson, BMS EVP and Head of Actuarial Services featured the Physician Insurer Magazine discussing the role of various asset classes in the portfolio of an MPL insurer.

Click here to read the full article

Reprinted from the first Quarter 2012 issue of Physician Insurer Magazine, Physician Insurers Association of America. Copyright, 2012.

Analytical Feature: Physician Insurer

Dave Spiegler, EVP & Chief Actuary and Mike Larson, EVP, featured in the Foresight feature in the Physician Insurer –  debating the interplay between the financial markets, medical professional liability (MPL) insurance companies’ rates and reserves and how MLP companies should be preparing for the next stage of the insurance cycle.

Click here to view the PDF of the full article

Reprinted from the fourth Quarter 2011 issue of Physician Insurer Magazine, Physician Insurers Association of America. Copyright, 2011.

BMS expands its analytics team with two new senior hires

Independent global broker BMS Group today announces that it is continuing to invest in its analytics business with the appointment of two industry experts:

  • Julie Serakos, Executive Vice President, Catastrophe Modelling
  • Mike Larson, Executive Vice President and Actuary for BMS Intermediaries

Julie will join BMS this week to lead the Catastrophe Modelling department.  She joins from Willis Re where she built up the company’s catastrophe risk modelling and advisory services business becoming the Executive Vice President in their Property Resource Division.

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Catastrophe Modelling – New models & the Atlantic wind season

As the Atlantic wind season begins, David Spiegler, EVP & Chief Actuary, features in the Global Reinsurance Special Report: Financial Modelling. He highlights how cat modelling has massively improved the ability of companies to understand where their exposures are and manage those risks more affectively.

Read the PDF of the full article.

For more from Global Reinsurance visit their website at http://www.globalreinsurance.com/.