Andy Siffert, BMS’ resident Meteorologist, discusses the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season:
Forecast groups predict a very active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
The start of the hurricane season is three weeks away and eight independent forecast outlets unanimously agree it will be a busy Atlantic hurricane season with a few calling for a higher probability of a landfalling hurricane along the coastal USA.
It is reasonable to wonder whether these early hurricane forecasts are accurate. Last year, forecasters in April called for an average to quieter than normal season, and it turned out to be a busy year with 19 named storms, tied for the third most on record. Seasonal forecasters emphasize the difficulties in predicting hurricane activity in April and, in fact, it is most likely impossible, given current methods and technology, to precisely predict the named storm activity level in April. However, many forecasting groups say they have made progress in developing these predictions and there is improvement based on using climatology alone. We do know that skill does climb slowly as the hurricane season approaches, with moderate to good skill levels being achieved in early August.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30 and in the linked, BMS Introspect – Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – April, we highlight the skill needed for an April hurricane forecast and what these forecasts are saying for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.